INSIGHTS IN ACTION: THE FGI BLOG
What Should Drive Your Business Decision: Intuition or Insight?
Malcolm Gladwell, in his much-celebrated book, Blink, advises people to go with their gut (which is based on experience) when deciding things quickly. As is often the case, a competing viewpoint (and book) has arrived to suggest another approach, at least in certain circumstances.
Michael Mauboussin, in his new book, Think Twice, advocates for a more measured approach to making certain decisions. He argues that we can put too much stock in our personal intuition and experience… and not enough in rigorous, fact-based, contemplative methods. Specifically, he calls us to engage the “wisdom of crowds,” which in the marketing research world means online communities and social media mining; statistical models, such as regression, conjoint, and MaxDiff; and best practices of data collection, which includes online surveys, custom online panels, RDD telephone data collection, and more.
Mauboussin believes that the Blink model is best left for use in predictable environments, where results from prior/similar decisions are well-known, and where we can see an obvious cause-and-effect relationship. While our gut instincts may be useful in such situations, Think Twice suggests that we more often find ourselves in situations that are totally new, where cause-and-effect models are not immediately obvious. As Mauboussin succinctly puts it: “Intuition is losing relevance in an increasingly complex world … more is different.”
So, who is right: my gut or my research? In these videos, the authors speak for themselves.
In my view, both Gladwell and Mauboussin make compelling cases for their views. Instant decision-making can serve us well in the right situations. When we’ve “seen this movie before,” we should confidently decide, act and move on. We can thump our chests and declare: “He who hesitates is lost.”
On the other hand, we must also acknowledge that we live in a complex and rapidly changing world. I have seen too many costly mistakes made because companies failed to invest in marketing research. They failed to seek the opinions and insights of the very customers whom they were in business to serve.
In order to successfully navigate this world, to choose correctly when we face our toughest decisions, we should take full advantage of the powerful marketing research tools and methods that are now at our disposal. We can use custom online panels, social media mining, online communities, quantitative models, prediction markets, and other advanced methods to inform our choices. During these times, we’ll turn to the data, while calmly reminding those around us that: “Fools rush in where angels fear to tread.” Some days we’ll blink and others we’ll think twice. The trick is to know when to rush in and when to hesitate. Do you have an instant opinion about the issue…or to you need to conduct some more research?
David W. Wilson
CEO
FGI Research
April 9th, 2010 at 9:41 am
Nice post. I think your assessment is spot on. You’d be surprised at the number of companies that under invest in market research when testing concepts, choosing new packaging or price points, and launching new marketing campaigns.