Michael Mauboussin, in his new book, Think Twice, advocates for a more measured approach to making certain decisions. He argues that we can put too much stock in our personal intuition and experience… and not enough in rigorous, fact-based, contemplative methods. Specifically, he calls us to engage the “wisdom of crowds,” which in the marketing research world means online communities and social media mining; statistical models, such as regression, conjoint, and MaxDiff; and best practices of data collection, which includes online surveys, custom online panels, RDD telephone data collection, and more.

Mauboussin believes that the Blink model is best left for use in predictable environments, where results from prior/similar decisions are well-known, and where we can see an obvious cause-and-effect relationship. While our gut instincts may be useful in such situations, Think Twice suggests that we more often find ourselves in situations that are totally new, where cause-and-effect models are not immediately obvious. As Mauboussin succinctly puts it: “Intuition is losing relevance in an increasingly complex world … more is different.”

So, who is right: my gut or my research? In these videos, the authors speak for themselves.

In my view, both Gladwell and Mauboussin make compelling cases for their views. Instant decision-making can serve us well in the right situations. When we’ve “seen this movie before,” we should confidently decide, act and move on. We can thump our chests and declare: “He who hesitates is lost.”

On the other hand, we must also acknowledge that we live in a complex and rapidly changing world. I have seen too many costly mistakes made because companies failed to invest in marketing research. They failed to seek the opinions and insights of the very customers whom they were in business to serve.

In order to successfully navigate this world, to choose correctly when we face our toughest decisions, we should take full advantage of the powerful marketing research tools and methods that are now at our disposal. We can use custom online panels, social media mining, online communities, quantitative models, prediction markets, and other advanced methods to inform our choices.

During these times, we’ll turn to the data, while calmly reminding those around us that: “Fools rush in where angels fear to tread.” Some days we’ll blink and others we’ll think twice. The trick is to know when to rush in and when to hesitate. Do you have an instant opinion about the issue…or to you need to conduct some more research?

David W. Wilson
CEO
FGI Research

1) Go West (or South) Young Man: Jobs (and therefore, people) are quickly migrating South and West: Lower taxes and fewer unions continue to encourage economic growth in the South and West. Conversely, regulations in many northern states, such as New York, are less favorable for businesses. Compounding the problem (or the opportunity for the South and West) is the fact that entire families, not just the younger workers, are moving. MR questions: How does this shift effect the consumption of your products and services? Should you test new concepts that will play better in the South and West? Should you refine the allocation of your media spend and/or the messaging behind your marketing?

2) Multi-Cultural Nation: While white non-Hispanics still comprise two thirds of the US’s 300 million people, it is the slowest growing segment at only 2%. The Hispanic population has grown over 40% since 2000 which makes it the largest minority group in the US at 50 million people (or 16%). MR questions: Do you really understand Hispanic consumer preferences as they relate to your products and services? Really? Many people give it lip service but fail to really invest in understanding this population. Do your customer satisfaction and awareness and usage studies delve deeply into Hispanic preferences?

3) Women on the Move: In a 2009 report, the Census Bureau revealed that more women had graduated college than men for the first time in US history. While the deep recession in male-dominated industries like construction and manufacturing has contributed to this shift, the increased role of women in the economic engine is a trend that’s likely to continue (see a related blog post here about women and their increased earning and purchasing power). MR questions: Are you looking at women through an outdated lens? Does your research fully understand the unique preferences of the all-powerful female consumer?

4) Power to Pops: It is forecasted that there will be 70 million grandparents by 2010. That’s a massive increase when you consider there were just 47 million in 1990. In effect, the number of grandparents in the US grew five times faster than the overall population. More importantly, grandparents are living with their children, helping with unmarried mothers (their daughters), and making spending decisions for the household. The bottom line is this: American consumers who are 50+ years old now “control the vast majority of assets and show the most economic growth.” As a result, marketing research and advertising budgets should shift accordingly, from the current allocation of 10% on that demographic to as much as 40%. MR questions: How well do you market to the grandparent demographic? Does your marketing research properly account for the grandparent demographic? How can you improve your questionnaire design, sampling and analytics in order to better understand this critical segment of the US population?

5) Christmas Spending Cheer: The Ad Age report forecasts “a small but encouraging spike in consumer spending” for this Christmas season. Furthermore it predicts, as do many other economists, that the recession in real estate will end in the spring (and construction in the summer). States likely to see the earliest turnaround include Texas and Florida, owing mainly to their relatively young populations and healthy industries. MR questions: How can you tweak your pricing and messaging to gain the most from this modest spike, without compromising the equity of your brand? Is there pent up demand for your products and services that poised to release once the psychological savings thresholds are achieved? If so, what are those thresholds and how can you ready your offerings and messaging to take full advantage of a resurgent US consumer?

David Wilson
CEO
FGI Research

According to an article in the New York Times entitled “Big Advertisers Agree to Tests of Online Research,” eight major advertising companies who spend a combined total of $500 million a year on market research have agreed to take part in a test looking at the quality of online research.

While some may question the accuracy of online research due to sample bias and the risks from “professional responders,” there’s no doubt that this tool has become a much quicker way to initially evaluate the marketplace and consumer reaction compared to the traditional methods alone.

But, some skeptics have a valid point in that online research alone isn’t always the best answer.  Better solutions can often be found by combining online surveys with online communities, social media mining, online focus groups and even telephone interviewing.

Ashton Smith
Social Media Intern
FGI Research